東京大学政策評価研究教育センター

CREPEDP-94

Number CREPEDP-94
Publication Date January 2021
Title A Note on Global Supply Chains in the After-COVID-19 Era
Author Takahiro Fujimoto
Abstract This exploratory article aims to preliminarily describe and analyze the spread of new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection and its impact of global and local supply chains in Japanese manufacturing industries and firms. Based on existing literature on industries, firms and disasters, we characterize the 2019-2020 new coronavirus pandemics as “the first global and invisible disaster in the era of global competition,” in which risks of factory shut-downs caused directly or indirectly by the infection can happen at any parts of global supply chains. This also is an invisible disaster that affects human resources of production, as opposed to visible disasters that destroy physical productive resources. In the latter case, organizational capabilities of quick recovery of damages sites and ramp-up of substitutive production are keys, while defense capability of keeping the factory uninfected is critical in the latter case. In any case, we argue that this is a global disaster that broke out in the middle of intense global competition, so dynamic balance between supply chain competitiveness and robustness, including quick switching between competition-focused mode and disaster-focused mode, is crucial. In this situation, certain factories with higher levels of deep-level competitiveness and anti-disaster robustness, strengthened historically by intense competitions and major disasters in the past, may take central roles in enhancing competitiveness and robustness of a firm’s global supply chain as a whole. We also discuss future possibilities of rebalancing Japanese firms’ Asian supply chains with a triangle of Japan-China-ASEAN sites.
Keywords new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, global disaster, invisible disaster, recovery capability, substitutive production capability, defense capability, balancing supply chain competitiveness and robustness, capability-transferring role of Japanese factories, rebalancing Asian supply chains.
Other information Paper in English (15 pages)
Japanese version (CREPEDP-93)