東京大学政策評価研究教育センター

Title Repeated Choice: A Theory of Stochastic Intertemporal Preferences
Date 2019年7月30日(火)July 30, 2019, 16:50-18:35
Venue 東京大学経済学研究科・学術交流棟(小島ホール)1階・第1セミナー室にて開催 [地図]
Seminar Room No. 1, Economics Research Annex (Kojima Hall), University of Tokyo [MAP]
Speaker 齊藤紘多(Kota Saito, California Institute of Technology and CREPE)
Abstract We provide a repeated-choice foundation for stochastic choice. We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions under which observed stochastic choice of an agent can be represented as a limit frequency of the agent's repeated choice over time. In the representation, the agent repeatedly chooses today’s consumption and tomorrow’s continuation menu, aware that future preferences will evolve according to a subjective ergodic utility process. Using our model, we demonstrate how not taking into account the agent’s preference for early (late) resolution of uncertainty would lead an analyst to underestimate (resp., overestimate) the agent’s risk aversion. Estimation of preferences can be performed by the analyst without explicitly modeling continuation problems (i.e. stochastic choice is independent of continuation menus) if and only if the utility process takes on the standard additive and separable form. Applications include estimation under dynamic discrete choice.
Information 英語での発表となります(Presentation in English)
主催:Microeconomics Workshop