| Number |
CREPEDP-188 |
| Publication Date |
March 2026 |
| Title |
"Lockdown Policy Rules with a Hospital Capacity" |
| Author |
Hongtao Li, Taisuke Nakata, Hiroki Sakamoto, and Hiroyuki Uneya
|
| Abstract |
We analyze how hospital capacity affects health and economic outcomes during a pandemic
using a macro-SIR model featuring a lockdown policy rule. The rule instructs
the government to implement a lockdown when the number of ICU patients exceeds
a trigger threshold—motivated broadly by a hospital capacity constraint—and to lift
the lockdown when it falls below a lifting threshold. When vaccines are not available,
we find that the government can reduce both COVID-19 deaths and economic loss by
raising the trigger threshold in some situations. When the vaccine rollout is expected
to begin in the near future, we find that the government can reduce both COVID-19
deaths and economic loss by lowering the trigger threshold.
|
| Keywords |
Epi-macro Model, Hospital Capacity, ICU, Lockdown, Macro-SIR Model,
Pandemic, Vaccine. |
| Other information |
Paper in English (23 pages) |