| Number |
CREPEDP-187 |
| Publication Date |
January 2026 |
| Title |
"Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation" |
| Author |
Quentin Batista, Masakazu Emoto, Naoki Maezono, and Taisuke Nakata
|
| Abstract |
We examine the implications of virus mutation for optimal lockdown policy in an epimacro
model. We consider three ways of modelling virus mutation—one deterministic
setup and two stochastic setups featuring a two-state and three-state Markov process.
We find that the effects of virus mutation are asymmetric. In particular, a future reduction
in the transmission rate increases lockdown intensity by more than a future
rise in the transmission rate lowers it. As a corollary to this asymmetry, an increase
in uncertainty about future mutation is non-neutral and reduces lockdown intensity
under the optimal policy.
|
| Keywords |
Epi-Macro Model, Lockdown, Macro-SIRD Model, Mutation, Optimal
Policy, Uncertainty |
| Other information |
Paper in English (22 pages) |