東京大学政策評価研究教育センター

CREPEDP-11

Number CREPEDP-11
Publication Date April 2018
Title Demographics, Immigration, and Market Size
Author(s) Koichi Fukumura, Kohei Nagamachi, Yasuhiro Sato, Kazuhiro Yamamoto
Abstract This paper constructs an overlapping generations model wherein people decide their number of children and levels of consumption for differentiated goods. We assume that immigration takes place according to the utility difference between inside and outside a country. We show that an improvement in longevity has three effects on the market size and welfare: First, it decreases the number of children. Second, it increases the per capita expenditure on consumption. Finally, it increases immigration. The first effect has negative impacts on the market size and welfare whereas the latter two effects have positive impacts. We then calibrate our model to match the Japanese and U.S. data from 1955 to 2014 and find that the negative effects dominate the positive ones. Moreover, our counterfactual analyses show that accepting immigration in Japan can be useful in overcoming population and market shrinkage caused by an aging population.
Keywords demographics, market size, immigration, overlapping generations model
Other information Paper in English (43 pages)