Center for Research and Education in Program Evaluation (CREPE), University of Tokyo

Joint research activities

Research topic Evaluation of job support policies for recipients of social protection (Joint research with the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare)
Members Hidehiko Ichimura(Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Daiji Kawaguchi(Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Takahiro Toriyabe (Graduate School of Economics, Doctoral Course, The University of Tokyo), Taiyo Fukai (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Research outcome (in Japanese) 経済財政諮問会議経済・財政一体改革推進委員会第5回 評価・分析ワーキング・グループにおける資料

Research projects by CREPE members

Households Sector

Research topic Determinants of household income and wealth distributions
Principal investigator Makoto Nirei (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Shuhei Aoki (Shinshu University)
Content of research We investigate how the risks households face on their labor and capital incomes shape the distributions of income and wealth across households, and analyze the effects of tax and redistribution policies on the distributions.
Research topic The indirect influence of the Great East Japan Earthquake on employment
Principal investigator Ayako Kondo (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Using the 2012 Employment Status Survey, the Interregional Input-Output Table, etc., we analyze the indirect impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on employment in areas other than those directly stricken by the disaster, as well as the reaction of households to that impact.
Research topic Researches for non-employed and unstable employed Persons in Japan
Principal investigator Yuji Genda (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research In this research we conduct analyses of people who are not blessed with good employment opportunities, such as the fully unemployed (non-employed persons seeking work), the NEET (young non-employed persons who have given up search for employment, excluding students and the married), the SNEP (the socially isolated non-employed persons of age 20 to 59 who keep living alone or with their family), the middle age and elderly persons who have abandoned attempts to find employment, and low-paid workers with unstable employment such as the so called “freeters”. We also study desirable policies regarding employment.
Research topic Randomized evaluation of the job training program and unconditional cash transfer in Afghanistan
Principal investigator Kosuke Imai (Princeton University/The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Jason Lyall (Yale University), Yang-Yang Zhou (Princeton University)
Content of research We measure the economic effect of vocational training and cash assistance given out in Helmand Province in Afghanistan, and the change in attitude towards the Taliban and other anti-government forces they may bring.
Research topic Evaluation of the effects of childcare enrollment on child development and maternal employment
Principal investigator Shintaro Yamaguchi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo )
Content of research We estimate the effects of childcare enrollment on child development and maternal employment. The findings will improve our understanding of the role of childcare in the society and contribute to developing better family policies.
Research topic Research on policy responses to low-income households (minimum wages and social protection)
Principal investigators Hidehiko Ichimura (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Daiji Kawaguchi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Taiyo Fukai (Graduate School of Economics, Doctoral Course, The University of Tokyo), Takahiro Toriyabe (Graduate School of Economics, Master’s Course, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research We analyze the influence of policy responses aimed at low-income households, such as policies regarding minimum wages and social security, on family budgets and companies, and evaluate whether each policy objective has been achieved.
Research topic Research on asset and income distributions in urban areas
Principal investigator Takatoshi Tabuchi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research It is said that in urban areas segregation takes place by income strata. Using real estate data, this research investigates spatial patterns of segregation by income strata and conduct analysis by employing urban economic models. Focusing on income disparity, we analyze social welfare with a view to policy evaluation.
Research topic Evaluation of the long-term impact of the female secondary school stipend program in Bangladesh.
Principal investigator Nobuhiko Fuwa (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Shahidur R. Khandker (independent consultant, former Lead Economist with Development Research Group at the World Bank)
Content of research We evaluate long-term impacts of the Female Secondary School Stipend Program in Bangladesh that started in 1994. We mainly focus on the policy impact on educational attainment, labor market outcomes, age at marriage and fertility.
Research topic ATM sangla (debit card pawning) in the Philippines: a case study in induced institutional innovation
Principal investigator Nobuhiko Fuwa (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Yasuyuki Sawada (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Kei Kajisa (Aoyama Gakuin University), etc.
Content of research We investigate the emergence of the “ATM Sangla” scheme (loans extended by informal money lenders with debit cards as collateral), which has quickly spread in the Philippines in the past decade, mainly from behavioral economics perspectives. We examine if this new scheme increased credit access for borrowers and also explore the possibility that hyperbolic discounters over-borrowed due to the emergence of this scheme. .
Research topic Construction of long-term and multi-generational household panel data in Laguna Province, the Philippines
Principal investigator Yasuyuki Sawada (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Kei Kajisa (Aoyama Gakuin University), Nobuhiko Fuwa (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo), etc.
Content of research We revisit those panel households studied by the Late Professor Robert Evenson (Yale University) and Professor Barry Popkin since 1977 in the outskirts of Metro Manila in Laguna Province in the Philippines, in order to construct a long and multigenerational panel dataset. We focus on the impact on the patterns of social mobility and on the welfare of those individuals of the dramatic transformation of what used to be rice growing rural villages in the 1970s into urban-industrial or suburban communities. We will pay a special attention to the roles played by transport infrastructure development.

Firms Sector

Research topic The Long-Term Care Insurance system and employment and wages in the nursing care sector
Principal investigator Ayako Kondo (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Utilizing various government surveys to analyze the impact of changes in the Long-Term Care Insurance system on the employment and wages in the nursing care sector.
Research topic The influence of the medical fee system on hospitals’ purchase behavior regarding expensive medical equipment
Principal investigator Naoki Wakamori (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Ken Onishi (Singapore Management University)
Content of research Compared to other OECD countries, Japanese medical institutions tend to excessively install expensive medical equipment such as CT, MRI and PET scans. Using data on installed expensive medical equipment and the rate of its utilization, we examine the adoption (investment) behavior of Japanese medical institutions and the influence of the medical fee system on economic welfare.
Research topic Network externality and network internal competition
Principal investigator Tetsuji Okazaki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Naoki Wakamori (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Ken Onishi (Singapore Management University)
Content of research In pre-war Japan suppliers and consumers of electric power with different frequency bands (50Hz and 60 Hz) coexisted in same areas. We analyze that phenomenon focusing on firm behaviors under the condition with network externality and competition within networks, and thereby evaluate the post-war policy regarding the standardization of the power grid.
Research topic The influence of the financial system on corporate behavior
Principal investigator Kenichi Ueda (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research By combining several types of data regarding corporate finances, such as the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities or Tokyo Shoko Research data, the research sheds light on issues such as the importance of stock-exchange listing, the influence of the bankruptcy law, or the effects of policy safety nets. Furthermore, we use data on corporate finances in major advanced countries and emerging market economies, such as those provided by Orbis and Thomson, to shed light on the impact of financial systems on firms on a global level.
Research topic Analysis of corporate behavior using matched employer-employee data
Principal investigator Daiji Kawaguchi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Ayako Kondo (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo), Izumi Yokoyama( Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University )
Content of research This research analyzes the impact of business environment surrounding firms and the relationship betweenon employment and wages by linking data on companies and businessfirms and facilitieestablishmentss, such as those found in the Basic Survey of Business Structure and Activities and industrial statistics, with firm-level labor data, such as those gathered by the Basic Survey on Wage Structure and the Survey on Employment Trends .
Research topic Health and productivity management through data analysis and development of programs for interventions;, and support for the creation of healthy and lively working environment
Principle investigator Norito Kawakami (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Kotaro Imamura (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo), Akihito Shimazu (Kitasato University)
Content of research We aspire for evidence-basedempirically grounded health and productivity management and support for the creation of healthy work environment through factor analysis of its determinants based on the analysis of health and personnel data (such as those from the stress checking system, ES surveys, and health checkups), the development of systems for future forecastingprojections, as well as through the development and impact evaluation of intervention programs for improving the work engagement of employeeslaborers.
Research topic Research on the impact of high-speed railway on firm location
Principal investigator Takatoshi Tabuchi (Graduate School of Economics, The Universiy of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Kazunobu Hayakawa (Institute of Developing Economics) and Jacques-François Thisse (Université catholique de Louvain)
Content of research When a high-speed railway is opened, the economic environment changes in various aspects. By conducting general equilibrium analysis, we theoretically examine the changes. Furthermore, by carrying out empirical analysis, we provide a quantitative analysis on the economic effects of introduction of Shinkansen (“bullet train” lines) and appraise relevant policies.
Research topic Research on firm productivity in low- and middle-income countries
Principal investigator Manabu Nose (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Sanket Mohapatra (IIM, Ahmedabad)
Content of research We use panel data on firms in low-income countries in Asia and Africa to assess whether government regulations and institutions are the main barriers for raising firms’ resource allocative efficiency and productivity. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of the diversification of corporate financing choices on firm performance by matching data on firms’ balance sheets and foreign debt financing in emerging market economies.

Public Sector

Research topic Kamaishi High School—Project for the improvement of students’ school life  
Principal investigator Ryuichi Tanaka (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Ayako Kondo (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Based on the results of a survey of the students of the Kamaishi High School in Iwate Prefecture, we explore effective ways for improving the quality of school life and examine the role played by friendship networks in terms of learning ability, satisfaction with life and the formation of social preferences among students.
Research topic Research on how the inflow of immigrants affects public education systems
Principal investigator Ryuichi Tanaka (Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Quantitative evaluation of the influence of the inflow of immigrants on the quality and quantity of public education through the calibration of politico-economic models and simulations.
Research topic Research on competition for firms among local governments and the optimal city size
Principal investigator Yasuhiro Sato (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Rainald Borck (University of Potsdam), Jun Oshiro (Okinawa University)
Content of research Taking property tax as a reference point, we analyze the influence of local government policies on the spatial distributions of firms and workers and reveal what types of regions or cities are saddled by excess population, and what types are only able to maintain insufficiently low levels of population. Furthermore, we conduct calibration using Japanese and German local government data and examine the differences between the two countries.
Research topic Bunching and the effect of taxation on household behavior
Principal investigator Masayoshi Hayashi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research We analyze how taxation affects household behavior and/or individual tax bases. We do so by utilizing bunching data around “kinks” on piece-wise linear budget constraints of households, kinks formed by the system of personal income taxes and/or social assistance benefits.
Research topic Workload and eligibility certification in social welfare offices
Principal investigator Masayoshi Hayashi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Utilizing an exogenous increase in caseworkers at municipal welfare offices that occurs when towns and villages are merged and raised to the status of a city, we analyze the impact of changes in the workload of caseworkers in public assistance (PA) administration on the certification of eligibility for PA benefits.
Research topic Evaluation of the JICA vocational training program for persons with disabilities in Rwanda
Principal investigator Yoshito Takasaki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Keitaro Aoyagi (Metrics Work Consultants and JICA), Mayuko Onuki (JICA Research Institute)
Content of research We examine the effects of the vocational training program for persons with disabilities in Rwanda conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) on interethnic reconciliation and social integration, as well as labor market outcomes.
Research topic Randomized Evaluation of the Indian Health Insurance Program
Principal investigator Kosuke Imai (Princeton University/The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Anup Malai (University of Chicago), Gabriella Conti (University College London), Cynthia Kinnan (Northwestern University), Alessandra Voena (University of Chicago)
Content of research Evaluation of policies for the expansion of the Indian Health Insurance Program “Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY)”, using randomized experiments for assessing the influence of the policies on health and household budgets.
Research topic Excess production capacity and industrial policy
Principal investigator Tetsuji Okazaki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Naoki Wakamori (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo), Ken Onishi (Singapore Management University)
Content of research Excess production capacity has been a major concern in many countries, in particular, when an industry faces declining demand. In Japan the issue especially became serious in the 1980s, triggered by two oil crises, and, in response to that, a series of policies, including the Temporary Law for Structural Improvement of the Special Industries and the Temporary Law for Structural Improvement of the Special Industries, were implemented. Using the plant-level data from the cement industry, we attempt to evaluate such policy interventions that removed excess production facilities.
Research topic Study of political and administrative institutions that contribute to effective evidence-based policy making (EBPM)
Principal investigator Yu Uchiyama (Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research This study sheds light on what kind of political and administrative systems are necessary for effective evidence-based policy making (EBPM), by conducting theoretical research and international comparisons. The study especially focuses on the role played by economists and other social scientists, social science experts within the government (such as government economists), think tanks and other external institutions.
Research topic Evaluation of the impact of infrastructure investment on urbanization
Principal investigator Manabu Nose (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research By combining data from population censuses and household surveys with GIS data on road network and traffic in urban areas in developing countries, we empirically examine the impact of city infrastructure investments on economic activities and land prices in surrounding areas. We also analyze the differential returns of publicly and privately funded infrastructure investments, as well as the efficiency of fiscal management for infrastructure by central and local governments.

Theory

Research topic Analysis of social identity in urban areas
Principal investigator Yasuhiro Sato (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research In large cities all over the world live people who are different origins. This research analyzes how these individuals categorize themselves and live in relation to people of different background, and uncovers the relationship between such self-categorization and city structures.
Research topic Institutional design: soft and hard approaches
Principal investigator Michihiro Kandori (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research To design and evaluate socio economic institutions, we need to pay attention to the formal rules as well as informal norms governing the participants’ behavior. I plan to conduct theoretical and experimental study on auctions and matching, as well as the informal mechanisms to govern cooperation and collusion.
Research topic Spectrum auction: theory, evaluation, practice
Principal investigator Hitoshi Matsushima (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research For the sake of efficient allocations of radio spectrum licenses, an important infrastructure in advanced information and communications societies, we aim to achieve a scientific breakthrough by examining mechanism design (institutional design based on the principle of competition) as represented by auction systems. Main topics of our research are developing a theory of spectrum auctions based on game theory and behavioral economics, evaluating the effects of institutional design based on economic experiments, policy advice concerning the design of institutions that conform to reality, analysis of the political process leading up to it, as well as analysis of its influence on industrial organization.
Research topic GAn examination of the general equilibrium analysis on between the bankruptcy system and the policy safety net for firms and financial institutions, and the policy safety net
Principal investigator Kenichi Ueda (Graduate School of Economics , The University of Tokyo)
Content of research The theory of finance literature has so far been developed concentrated on partial equilibrium analysis based on the premise that the relationship betweenon the bankruptcy system and the related policy safety nets (such ase.g., bank bail outs). is that of a partial equilibrium. However, we examine since the general equilibrium effects the impact on macroeconomics and public finances, as we can no longer overlook these effects cannot be overlooked., we conduct a theoretical examination of that relationship within the framework of general equilibrium.
Research topic Endogenous fluctuations in market transactions
Principal investigator Makoto Nirei (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Macroeconomic variables such as fixed capital formation or asset prices appear to exhibit fluctuations even when there are no exogenous shocks that drive them. We explore a hypothesis that interactions of market participants can bring about those fluctuations endogenously.
Research topic Theoretical and empirical research concerning the generation and collapse of property bubbles
Principal investigator Tomohiro Hirano (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Upon theoretically and empirically elucidating the generation and collapse of property bubbles, we deduce desirable policies for dealing with them (such as financial regulation and monetary policies).

Econometrics

Research topic Development of a program for training highly capable personnel with skills in clinical epidemiology, statistics and medical information technology for the purpose of conducting practical big data analysis in response to concrete tasks in the medical and nursing care profession, and empirical verification (Research awarded a scientific research grant of the Japanese Ministry of Labor Health and Welfare“Building of ICT infrastructure and implementation of artificial intelligence in clinical and medical research”).
Principal investigator Hideo Yasunaga (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research The main objectives of this research are(i) to develop a program for the continual training of personnel who would be well versed in big data analysis, and (ii) parallel with the development of the above-mentioned program, further acceleration of research involving big data. In the program for developing practical skills for conducting research involving big data, we take clinical questions from regular and emergency situations, turn them into empirically verifiable research questions and, using the existing big data, cultivate practical skills for solving those research questions in the fields of clinical, epidemiological and health service research.
Research topic Evaluation of the effectiveness and quality of medical care service using a database that integrates DPC data and lab test results (Awarded the MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) )
Principal investigator Hideo Yasunaga (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research In this research project we build a new large-scale database by centrally collecting DPC data and lab test results extracted from the medical ordering system. Furthermore, by fully utilizing those data, we comprehensively conduct the following research
(i) evaluation of the effectiveness of medical technology (drugs, operations and interventions, diagnostics, etc.)
(ii) evaluation of the quality of acute medical care.
Research topic Statistical inference for ill-posed inverse problems, and approximation theorems for high dimensional U-statistics and U-processes.
Principal investigator Kengo Kato (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Description I'm working on developing inferential methods such as confidence bands for ill-posed inverse problems including measurement error models. In addition, I’m interested in approximation theorems for high dimensional U-statistics and U-processes.
Research topic Development of a statistical inference theory of regime-switching models
Principal investigator Katsumi Shimotsu (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Hiroyuki Kasahara (University of British Columbia)
Content of research In order to promote the application of regime-switching models in empirical research, we work on deriving the asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimators, on developing methods for statistical testing concerning the number of regimes, and on developing a software package in the R programming language for estimating regime-switching models.
Research topic Spatial data and program evaluation
Principal investigator Yoshito Takasaki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Katsuo Kogure (Kyoto University)
Content of research Using spatial data, we develop methods for measuring the causal effects of spatial phenomena (events). We explore the possibility of their broad applications especially to public goods such as schools and health facilities.
Research topic Causal Inference with Interference in Two-Stage Randomized Controlled Trials
Principal investigator Kosuke Imai (Princeton University/The University of Tokyo)
Coinvestigators Zhichao Jiang (Princeton University, postdoctoral fellow)
Content of research Development of a statistical method for measuring the spillover effect in two-stage randomized controlled trials. This new method will be utilized in the above mentioned project on the evaluation of the Indian health insurance program.
Research topic A study of subnational prefecture-level disease burden in Japan
Principal investigator Kenji Shibuya (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Evaluating Japan’s fatality mortality and disease burden (comprehensive health index that includes death and disability) at the prefectural level, and presenting new data for the purpose of finding the best method for dealing with that burden.
Research topic Analysis of subnationalprefecture-level health expenditure in Japan
Principal investigator Kenji Shibuya (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Estimating medical expenditure in Japan by disease and by prefecture based on data derived from medical receipts, and offering advice on new fiscal measures for correcting health inequalities, such as the expansion or introduction of private medical and nursing care insurance.
Research topic Analysis of subnational health system performance at the prefectural levelin Japan
Principal investigator Kenji Shibuya (Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo)
Content of research Analyzing the relationship between important inputs and outputs in the health care system, such as the training of medical professionals and the scale of their employment or the quality of diagnostics and medical care, and health outcomes. Also, considering policies for the realization of an impartial and sustainable health system.